Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $10.55 - $15.56 | $12.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $24.83 - $27.28 | $26.03 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19.49 | |
| Current Price | $10.92 | |
| Upside | 78.48% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.92% | -1.06% | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.18% | -0.02% | 0.48% | -1.37% | 11.19% | -0.24% | -5.62% | -9.26% | -4.28% | -0.07% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.39% | 9.52% | 9.80% | 7.99% | 6.93% | 6.55% | 7.65% | 7.50% | 8.21% | 9.14% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 126.78 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 117.59 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.19 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 25.36 | 15.85 | 9.51 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.19 | 9.19 | 9.19 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -25.36 | -15.85 | -9.51 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -16.17 | -6.66 | -0.32 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 93.32 | 93.32 | 93.32 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.17 | -0.07 | 0.00 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.09 | 1.19 | 1.26 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.93% | 6.93% | 6.93% |
| Growth Rate | -3.06% | -2.06% | -1.06% |
| Fair Value | $10.55 | $12.95 | $15.56 |
| Upside / Downside | -3.43% | 18.59% | 42.50% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 126.78 | 124.17 | 121.61 | 119.10 | 116.65 | 114.24 | 117.67 |
| Payout Ratio | 92.75% | 92.20% | 91.65% | 91.10% | 90.55% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 117.59 | 114.49 | 111.46 | 108.50 | 105.62 | 102.82 | 108.85 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.93% | 6.93% | 6.93% |
| Growth Rate | -3.06% | -2.06% | -1.06% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 105.97 | 107.07 | 108.16 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 95.50 | 97.48 | 99.48 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 86.06 | 88.75 | 91.49 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 77.55 | 80.79 | 84.15 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 69.87 | 73.55 | 77.38 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,882.56 | 1,981.69 | 2,084.94 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,317.51 | 2,429.33 | 2,545.60 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 93.32 | 93.32 | 93.32 |
| Fair Value | $24.83 | $26.03 | $27.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 127.41% | 138.38% | 149.79% |
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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