Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

B2Gold Corp. (BTG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.18 - $3.89$2.90
Multi-Stage$1.81 - $1.97$1.89
Blended Fair Value$2.40
Current Price$4.95
Upside-51.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS77.41%0.00%0.130.130.110.120.080.010.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---2.90%16.03%-1.81%37.52%1,055.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.51%5.02%2.90%2.53%1.96%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.8527.4016.44
Cash Retained (M)95.5195.5195.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.85-27.40-16.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.6768.1179.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,435.641,435.641,435.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate11.40%11.40%11.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.18$2.90$3.89
Upside / Downside-55.89%-41.37%-21.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.23233.48248.65264.82282.03300.36309.37
Payout Ratio56.43%63.15%69.86%76.57%83.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.71147.43173.71202.78234.89270.33286.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.40%11.40%11.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.10132.34133.58
Year 2 PV (M)137.35139.97142.61
Year 3 PV (M)142.57146.67150.84
Year 4 PV (M)146.86152.51158.31
Year 5 PV (M)150.29157.55165.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,893.341,984.792,079.73
Equity Value (M)2,601.502,713.812,830.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,435.641,435.641,435.64
Fair Value$1.81$1.89$1.97
Upside / Downside-63.39%-61.81%-60.17%

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