Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sierra Bancorp (BSRR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.91 - $351.31$147.27
Multi-Stage$53.89 - $58.89$56.35
Blended Fair Value$101.81
Current Price$28.91
Upside252.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.77%11.06%0.980.991.000.950.880.810.700.570.470.41
YoY Growth---0.58%-1.47%5.19%8.40%7.72%16.14%22.96%21.96%14.91%18.58%
Dividend Yield--3.51%5.09%5.81%3.81%3.27%4.63%2.84%2.14%1.70%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.964.972.98
Cash Retained (M)26.0026.0026.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.96-4.97-2.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.0421.0223.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.9213.9213.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.511.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.990.990.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.511.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.502.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$85.91$147.27$351.31
Upside / Downside197.16%409.42%1,115.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.8042.3845.1448.0751.2054.5356.16
Payout Ratio34.68%45.74%56.81%67.87%78.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.8019.3925.6432.6340.4149.0751.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17.7317.9018.07
Year 2 PV (M)21.4521.8622.27
Year 3 PV (M)24.9625.6826.41
Year 4 PV (M)28.2829.3730.49
Year 5 PV (M)31.4132.9234.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)626.20656.45687.85
Equity Value (M)750.03784.18819.59
Shares Outstanding (M)13.9213.9213.92
Fair Value$53.89$56.35$58.89
Upside / Downside86.42%94.90%103.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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