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Definitive Analysis

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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.54 - $15.47$12.91
Multi-Stage$14.22 - $15.63$14.91
Blended Fair Value$13.91
Current Price$30.53
Upside-54.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-73.53%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.010.440.410.100.000.00
YoY Growth---59.38%-68.00%-15.25%-21.33%-98.50%5.39%318.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.02%0.02%0.01%3.14%0.89%0.22%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.183.862.32
Cash Retained (M)30.9030.9030.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.18-3.86-2.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.7227.0328.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.9222.9222.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.181.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.181.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-0.42%0.58%1.58%
Fair Value$10.54$12.91$15.47
Upside / Downside-65.47%-57.70%-49.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.9031.0831.2631.4431.6331.8132.76
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.005.6011.2616.9822.7728.6330.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-0.42%0.58%1.58%
Year 1 PV (M)5.055.105.15
Year 2 PV (M)9.169.349.53
Year 3 PV (M)12.4612.8413.22
Year 4 PV (M)15.0715.6816.32
Year 5 PV (M)17.0917.9618.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)267.21280.90295.14
Equity Value (M)326.03341.83358.24
Shares Outstanding (M)22.9222.9222.92
Fair Value$14.22$14.91$15.63
Upside / Downside-53.41%-51.15%-48.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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