Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR-PA.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.87 - $4.61$3.66
Multi-Stage$3.95 - $4.32$4.13
Blended Fair Value$3.89
Current Price$7.47
Upside-47.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.03%0.00%0.400.780.260.020.040.100.100.100.000.00
YoY Growth---49.46%197.19%981.31%-39.47%-60.72%5.03%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.92%14.67%3.44%0.29%1.54%13.12%2.66%2.63%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.589.125.47
Cash Retained (M)21.2721.2721.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.58-9.12-5.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.6912.1615.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)272.76272.76272.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Fair Value$2.87$3.66$4.61
Upside / Downside-61.55%-51.04%-38.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.9274.5876.2778.0079.7681.5784.02
Payout Ratio70.83%74.66%78.50%82.33%86.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.6555.6859.8764.2168.7373.4277.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)50.6751.1751.67
Year 2 PV (M)49.5850.5751.56
Year 3 PV (M)48.4049.8551.33
Year 4 PV (M)47.1449.0350.98
Year 5 PV (M)45.8348.1450.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)835.33877.40921.15
Equity Value (M)1,076.961,126.161,177.22
Shares Outstanding (M)272.76272.76272.76
Fair Value$3.95$4.13$4.32
Upside / Downside-47.14%-44.73%-42.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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