Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BHP Group Limited (BHP.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.89 - $53.73$42.94
Multi-Stage$63.29 - $69.39$66.28
Blended Fair Value$54.61
Current Price$24.18
Upside125.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.42%-0.15%1.261.512.613.511.561.352.241.030.580.81
YoY Growth---16.57%-42.15%-25.67%125.93%14.91%-39.66%118.30%78.71%-29.27%-36.44%
Dividend Yield--5.21%5.24%8.72%12.34%4.80%6.15%8.68%4.60%3.61%6.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,916.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14,078.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,838.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,383.202,114.501,268.70
Cash Retained (M)2,838.002,838.002,838.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,383.20-2,114.50-1,268.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-545.20723.501,569.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,080.005,080.005,080.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.140.31
LTM Dividend per Share2.772.772.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.110.140.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.662.913.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$33.89$42.94$53.73
Upside / Downside40.16%77.58%122.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,916.0016,982.6017,049.4617,116.5917,183.9817,251.6417,769.18
Payout Ratio83.22%84.58%85.93%87.29%88.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14,078.0014,363.6114,651.2514,940.9315,232.6715,526.4716,436.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.21%7.21%7.21%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)13,264.6613,398.1113,531.57
Year 2 PV (M)12,495.0912,747.7813,003.00
Year 3 PV (M)11,767.2512,126.0012,491.98
Year 4 PV (M)11,079.1311,531.7711,998.14
Year 5 PV (M)10,428.8110,964.1011,521.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)262,469.55275,941.44289,960.93
Equity Value (M)321,504.49336,709.21352,506.76
Shares Outstanding (M)5,080.005,080.005,080.00
Fair Value$63.29$66.28$69.39
Upside / Downside161.74%174.12%186.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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