Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Berry Global Group, Inc. (BERY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.38 - $55.72$46.79
Multi-Stage$64.10 - $70.45$67.21
Blended Fair Value$57.00
Current Price$69.47
Upside-17.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.181.080.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--9.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)615.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)149.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)466.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)123.0076.8846.13
Cash Retained (M)466.00466.00466.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-123.00-76.88-46.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)343.00389.13419.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)117.63117.63117.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.923.313.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.923.313.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.184.574.84
WACC / Discount Rate8.68%8.68%8.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$38.38$46.79$55.72
Upside / Downside-44.75%-32.65%-19.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)615.00608.85602.76596.73590.77584.86602.40
Payout Ratio24.23%37.38%50.54%63.69%76.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)149.00227.60304.62380.07453.98526.37557.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.68%8.68%8.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)207.31209.42211.54
Year 2 PV (M)252.72257.90263.14
Year 3 PV (M)287.20296.08305.14
Year 4 PV (M)312.46325.41338.76
Year 5 PV (M)329.99347.17365.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,149.936,470.176,803.62
Equity Value (M)7,539.607,906.168,287.26
Shares Outstanding (M)117.63117.63117.63
Fair Value$64.10$67.21$70.45
Upside / Downside-7.73%-3.25%1.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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