Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $12.54 - $17.65 | $15.08 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.03 - $25.23 | $24.11 |
| Blended Fair Value | $19.59 | |
| Current Price | $8.89 | |
| Upside | 120.38% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.18% | 0.08% | 0.69 | 0.75 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -7.42% | -33.18% | 26.52% | 41.14% | -18.93% | 33.04% | -0.27% | -0.51% | -0.02% | -14.74% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.33% | 9.69% | 12.38% | 8.74% | 7.37% | 7.76% | 7.45% | 6.29% | 7.16% | 7.67% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 365.37 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 264.16 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 101.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 73.07 | 45.67 | 27.40 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 101.21 | 101.21 | 101.21 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -73.07 | -45.67 | -27.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 28.14 | 55.54 | 73.81 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 181.54 | 181.54 | 181.54 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.46 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.61 | 1.76 | 1.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.31% | -2.31% | -1.31% |
| Fair Value | $12.54 | $15.08 | $17.65 |
| Upside / Downside | 41.11% | 69.60% | 98.53% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 365.37 | 356.92 | 348.67 | 340.61 | 332.74 | 325.04 | 334.79 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.30% | 75.84% | 79.38% | 82.92% | 86.46% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 264.16 | 270.69 | 276.77 | 282.43 | 287.68 | 292.54 | 309.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.31% | -2.31% | -1.31% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 245.57 | 248.11 | 250.65 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 227.80 | 232.54 | 237.32 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 210.89 | 217.50 | 224.25 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 194.88 | 203.07 | 211.51 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 179.79 | 189.28 | 199.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,121.09 | 3,285.86 | 3,457.52 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,180.02 | 4,376.36 | 4,580.43 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 181.54 | 181.54 | 181.54 |
| Fair Value | $23.03 | $24.11 | $25.23 |
| Upside / Downside | 159.00% | 171.17% | 183.81% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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