Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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The Brink's Company (BCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.75 - $209.17$127.69
Multi-Stage$65.35 - $71.45$68.35
Blended Fair Value$98.02
Current Price$116.86
Upside-16.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.93%7.98%0.970.920.870.860.700.690.710.640.460.45
YoY Growth--5.56%5.32%1.08%23.59%0.67%-1.64%9.75%39.90%1.54%0.52%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.01%1.31%1.27%0.88%1.33%0.91%0.90%0.86%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)170.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.0221.2612.76
Cash Retained (M)127.90127.90127.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.02-21.26-12.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)93.88106.64115.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.0443.0443.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.482.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.482.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.163.463.66
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate4.93%5.93%6.93%
Fair Value$85.75$127.69$209.17
Upside / Downside-26.62%9.26%78.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)170.10180.19190.87202.19214.18226.89233.69
Payout Ratio24.81%37.85%50.89%63.92%76.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.2068.2097.13129.25164.84204.20216.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate4.93%5.93%6.93%
Year 1 PV (M)62.0962.6863.27
Year 2 PV (M)80.5182.0583.61
Year 3 PV (M)97.54100.36103.23
Year 4 PV (M)113.26117.64122.15
Year 5 PV (M)127.74133.94140.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,331.812,445.062,562.67
Equity Value (M)2,812.952,941.743,075.31
Shares Outstanding (M)43.0443.0443.04
Fair Value$65.35$68.35$71.45
Upside / Downside-44.07%-41.51%-38.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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