Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.68 - $56.62$46.64
Multi-Stage$49.97 - $54.79$52.33
Blended Fair Value$49.49
Current Price$54.22
Upside-8.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.840.000.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--22,866.67%-83.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%0.01%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.507.194.31
Cash Retained (M)46.2846.2846.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.50-7.19-4.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.7839.0941.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.1713.1713.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.642.973.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.642.973.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.493.824.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Fair Value$37.68$46.64$56.62
Upside / Downside-30.50%-13.97%4.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.4958.2859.0859.9060.7361.5663.41
Payout Ratio19.50%33.60%47.70%61.80%75.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.2119.5828.1837.0246.0955.4158.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)17.6817.8518.03
Year 2 PV (M)22.9723.4323.89
Year 3 PV (M)27.2328.0628.89
Year 4 PV (M)30.6131.8533.13
Year 5 PV (M)33.2234.9136.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)526.49553.24581.07
Equity Value (M)658.20689.34721.68
Shares Outstanding (M)13.1713.1713.17
Fair Value$49.97$52.33$54.79
Upside / Downside-7.84%-3.48%1.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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