Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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BancFirst Corporation (BANF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$214.10 - $904.43$369.68
Multi-Stage$132.36 - $144.71$138.42
Blended Fair Value$254.05
Current Price$126.45
Upside100.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.74%11.45%1.711.591.441.341.261.180.900.730.670.64
YoY Growth--7.70%10.69%7.36%6.28%6.70%31.52%22.12%8.84%6.16%9.75%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.85%1.73%1.61%1.78%3.53%1.68%1.38%1.50%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)237.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.5229.7017.82
Cash Retained (M)176.48176.48176.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.52-29.70-17.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)128.96146.78158.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.7733.7733.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.824.354.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.811.811.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.824.354.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.636.166.51
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$214.10$369.68$904.43
Upside / Downside69.31%192.35%615.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)237.59253.03269.48287.00305.65325.52335.28
Payout Ratio25.72%38.58%51.43%64.29%77.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.1197.61138.60184.51235.79292.97310.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.27%8.27%8.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.3190.1591.00
Year 2 PV (M)116.02118.23120.46
Year 3 PV (M)141.30145.36149.49
Year 4 PV (M)165.22171.57178.10
Year 5 PV (M)187.81196.88206.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,770.113,952.214,141.28
Equity Value (M)4,469.774,674.404,886.64
Shares Outstanding (M)33.7733.7733.77
Fair Value$132.36$138.42$144.71
Upside / Downside4.68%9.47%14.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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