Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Banco BPM S.p.A. (BAMI.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.18 - $246.54$216.12
Multi-Stage$32.36 - $35.34$33.82
Blended Fair Value$124.97
Current Price$9.91
Upside1,161.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS642.95%64.50%0.960.230.190.060.000.000.000.000.040.00
YoY Growth--314.47%21.22%218.45%0.00%-100.00%-66.67%-55.04%-99.29%23,403.13%-97.44%
Dividend Yield--10.31%3.73%5.31%2.24%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%1.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,863.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,507.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)372.67232.92139.75
Cash Retained (M)355.43355.43355.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-372.67-232.92-139.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.24122.51215.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.101,503.101,503.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.080.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.18$216.12$246.54
Upside / Downside588.02%2,080.87%2,387.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,863.331,984.442,113.432,250.812,397.112,552.922,629.51
Payout Ratio80.93%82.74%84.56%86.37%88.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,507.901,641.931,787.021,944.022,113.892,297.632,432.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,519.621,534.021,548.43
Year 2 PV (M)1,530.691,559.841,589.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,541.131,585.371,630.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,550.951,610.601,671.95
Year 5 PV (M)1,560.181,635.541,713.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,937.4542,914.7444,967.71
Equity Value (M)48,640.0150,840.1153,121.58
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.101,503.101,503.10
Fair Value$32.36$33.82$35.34
Upside / Downside226.54%241.31%256.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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