Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Aurizon Holdings Limited (AZJ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.43 - $5.23$4.28
Multi-Stage$8.44 - $9.28$8.85
Blended Fair Value$6.56
Current Price$3.03
Upside116.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.38%-2.84%0.160.180.180.250.290.280.270.250.300.29
YoY Growth---8.90%-0.91%-28.21%-13.33%2.92%5.37%5.52%-16.27%4.33%33.59%
Dividend Yield--5.40%4.92%4.63%6.65%7.83%5.76%4.98%5.88%5.67%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)709.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)623.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)141.8088.6353.18
Cash Retained (M)86.0086.0086.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-141.80-88.63-53.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-55.80-2.6332.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,814.491,814.491,814.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.000.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.48%-1.48%-0.48%
Fair Value$3.43$4.28$5.23
Upside / Downside13.32%41.11%72.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)709.00698.50688.16677.97667.93658.03677.77
Payout Ratio87.87%88.30%88.72%89.15%89.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)623.00616.75610.55604.39598.29592.23626.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate-2.48%-1.48%-0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)573.78579.67585.55
Year 2 PV (M)528.44539.34550.34
Year 3 PV (M)486.67501.80517.24
Year 4 PV (M)448.20466.87486.11
Year 5 PV (M)412.75434.35456.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,862.5613,535.7114,236.76
Equity Value (M)15,312.4116,057.7416,832.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,814.491,814.491,814.49
Fair Value$8.44$8.85$9.28
Upside / Downside178.51%192.07%206.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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