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Definitive Analysis

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AXA S.A. (AXA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$216.91 - $1,165.55$426.65
Multi-Stage$158.64 - $173.65$166.00
Blended Fair Value$296.33
Current Price$41.67
Upside611.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%7.14%2.031.801.671.590.791.491.551.411.331.20
YoY Growth--12.84%7.40%5.36%100.17%-46.66%-4.28%10.20%5.99%10.85%17.99%
Dividend Yield--5.91%6.10%6.42%6.07%4.07%5.93%8.24%5.70%5.55%4.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,858.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,146.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,600.801,625.50975.30
Cash Retained (M)6,146.006,146.006,146.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,600.80-1,625.50-975.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,545.204,520.505,170.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,195.992,195.992,195.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.612.062.35
LTM Dividend per Share3.123.123.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.612.062.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.745.185.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$216.91$426.65$1,165.55
Upside / Downside420.55%923.88%2,697.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,004.0013,705.3114,444.4415,223.4316,044.4316,909.7117,417.00
Payout Ratio52.74%60.19%67.64%75.10%82.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,858.008,249.249,770.5911,432.0413,244.2815,218.7416,110.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)7,659.837,733.207,806.58
Year 2 PV (M)8,424.258,586.428,750.13
Year 3 PV (M)9,152.499,418.049,688.68
Year 4 PV (M)9,845.7610,228.4710,622.24
Year 5 PV (M)10,505.2111,018.1011,550.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)302,777.86317,560.19332,914.34
Equity Value (M)348,365.41364,544.44381,332.79
Shares Outstanding (M)2,195.992,195.992,195.99
Fair Value$158.64$166.00$173.65
Upside / Downside280.70%298.38%316.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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