Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$299.87 - $1,134.10$878.34
Multi-Stage$143.48 - $156.83$150.04
Blended Fair Value$514.19
Current Price$139.19
Upside269.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.63%10.48%3.002.732.392.191.991.811.641.481.341.23
YoY Growth--9.96%13.92%9.11%10.03%10.20%10.66%10.38%10.73%9.21%10.65%
Dividend Yield--2.03%2.27%1.63%1.33%1.33%1.51%1.58%1.80%1.72%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,112.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)621.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)491.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)222.40139.0083.40
Cash Retained (M)491.00491.00491.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-222.40-139.00-83.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)268.60352.00407.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)195.00195.00195.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.812.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.183.183.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.812.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.564.995.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$299.87$878.34$1,134.10
Upside / Downside115.44%531.04%714.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,112.001,184.281,261.261,343.241,430.551,523.541,569.24
Payout Ratio55.85%62.68%69.51%76.34%83.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)621.00742.26876.671,025.401,189.781,371.181,451.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)686.52693.02699.53
Year 2 PV (M)749.93764.21778.63
Year 3 PV (M)811.29834.58858.31
Year 4 PV (M)870.64904.12938.56
Year 5 PV (M)928.03972.851,019.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,932.1925,088.1226,288.29
Equity Value (M)27,978.5829,256.9030,582.71
Shares Outstanding (M)195.00195.00195.00
Fair Value$143.48$150.04$156.83
Upside / Downside3.08%7.79%12.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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