Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.87 - $328.99$208.71
Multi-Stage$111.00 - $121.40$116.10
Blended Fair Value$162.41
Current Price$196.01
Upside-17.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.29%44.22%1.161.071.010.950.900.810.200.000.000.03
YoY Growth--7.89%6.11%6.76%5.61%10.11%313.95%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-7.69%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.87%1.42%1.05%0.99%1.02%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)305.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)54.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.0838.1822.91
Cash Retained (M)251.30251.30251.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.08-38.18-22.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.22213.13228.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.7843.7843.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.354.875.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.354.875.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.586.106.45
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate4.85%5.85%6.85%
Fair Value$142.87$208.71$328.99
Upside / Downside-27.11%6.48%67.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)305.40323.26342.17362.18383.36405.78417.95
Payout Ratio17.71%32.17%46.63%61.09%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)54.10104.00159.55221.24289.60365.20386.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate4.85%5.85%6.85%
Year 1 PV (M)94.5695.4696.36
Year 2 PV (M)131.90134.43136.98
Year 3 PV (M)166.30171.10175.99
Year 4 PV (M)197.92205.58213.46
Year 5 PV (M)226.93237.96249.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,041.484,237.924,441.93
Equity Value (M)4,859.095,082.455,314.14
Shares Outstanding (M)43.7843.7843.78
Fair Value$111.00$116.10$121.40
Upside / Downside-43.37%-40.77%-38.07%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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