Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Atria Oyj (ATRAV.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.76 - $61.80$41.03
Multi-Stage$41.30 - $45.33$43.28
Blended Fair Value$42.15
Current Price$13.00
Upside224.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.02%11.86%0.670.700.630.500.420.400.520.470.400.40
YoY Growth---3.84%11.21%26.11%19.11%5.02%-23.68%12.50%16.46%0.00%81.84%
Dividend Yield--5.52%6.94%5.51%4.79%3.55%4.84%6.29%3.78%3.84%4.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.825.513.31
Cash Retained (M)24.2024.2024.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.82-5.51-3.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.3818.6920.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.2028.2028.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.660.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.710.710.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.660.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$28.76$41.03$61.80
Upside / Downside121.25%215.59%375.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.1045.3746.6848.0249.4050.8252.35
Payout Ratio45.12%54.10%63.07%72.05%81.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.9024.5429.4434.6040.0345.7448.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)22.8623.0923.31
Year 2 PV (M)25.5526.0526.56
Year 3 PV (M)27.9628.8029.64
Year 4 PV (M)30.1431.3432.57
Year 5 PV (M)32.0833.6835.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,026.021,077.371,130.76
Equity Value (M)1,164.611,220.331,278.21
Shares Outstanding (M)28.2028.2028.20
Fair Value$41.30$43.28$45.33
Upside / Downside217.69%232.89%248.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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