Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.28 - $1.81$1.54
Multi-Stage$2.12 - $2.31$2.22
Blended Fair Value$1.88
Current Price$28.35
Upside-93.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-42.04%0.00%0.081.270.290.641.051.260.360.210.000.00
YoY Growth---93.50%342.44%-54.87%-39.42%-16.85%247.53%69.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%3.02%0.79%1.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.911.190.72
Cash Retained (M)1.291.291.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.91-1.19-0.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.620.090.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.9348.9348.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.28$1.54$1.81
Upside / Downside-95.49%-94.56%-93.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.549.449.359.259.169.079.34
Payout Ratio86.52%87.21%87.91%88.61%89.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.258.238.228.208.188.168.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7.417.497.56
Year 2 PV (M)6.666.806.93
Year 3 PV (M)5.986.176.36
Year 4 PV (M)5.375.605.83
Year 5 PV (M)4.835.085.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)73.4577.2781.25
Equity Value (M)103.70108.40113.27
Shares Outstanding (M)48.9348.9348.93
Fair Value$2.12$2.22$2.31
Upside / Downside-92.52%-92.19%-91.83%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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