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Definitive Analysis

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Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.60 - $28.16$23.10
Multi-Stage$24.38 - $26.71$25.52
Blended Fair Value$24.31
Current Price$48.13
Upside-49.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.72%2.64%0.520.510.490.440.440.430.420.400.400.40
YoY Growth--0.85%5.36%9.80%2.00%0.85%3.02%4.32%0.10%0.26%0.28%
Dividend Yield--1.51%1.20%1.18%1.03%0.58%1.24%1.08%0.73%0.65%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.585.993.59
Cash Retained (M)36.0036.0036.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.58-5.99-3.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.4230.0132.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.9522.9522.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.311.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.311.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.831.93
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Fair Value$18.60$23.10$28.16
Upside / Downside-61.36%-52.01%-41.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.9048.6949.4950.3051.1351.9753.53
Payout Ratio24.84%37.87%50.91%63.94%76.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.9018.4425.1932.1639.3546.7749.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate0.64%1.64%2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)16.6516.8116.98
Year 2 PV (M)20.5320.9421.36
Year 3 PV (M)23.6624.3725.10
Year 4 PV (M)26.1427.1928.28
Year 5 PV (M)28.0529.4730.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)444.43466.95490.38
Equity Value (M)559.46585.74613.04
Shares Outstanding (M)22.9522.9522.95
Fair Value$24.38$25.52$26.71
Upside / Downside-49.35%-46.97%-44.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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