Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Astra International Tbk (ASII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65,511.13 - $160,490.57$150,403.16
Multi-Stage$23,579.76 - $25,796.15$24,667.64
Blended Fair Value$87,535.40
Current Price$5,775.00
Upside1,415.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.71%9.16%518.68649.57281.82131.91183.90211.00189.88167.92167.89215.86
YoY Growth---20.15%130.49%113.65%-28.27%-12.84%11.12%13.08%0.01%-22.22%0.00%
Dividend Yield--10.54%12.49%4.70%2.01%3.49%5.41%2.61%2.30%1.95%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,670,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16,426,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)16,244,000.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,534,000.004,083,750.002,450,250.00
Cash Retained (M)16,244,000.0016,244,000.0016,244,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,534,000.00-4,083,750.00-2,450,250.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,710,000.0012,160,250.0013,793,750.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40,483.6640,483.6640,483.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share239.85300.37340.72
LTM Dividend per Share405.74405.74405.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share239.85300.37340.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend645.59706.12746.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65,511.13$150,403.16$160,490.57
Upside / Downside1,034.39%2,504.38%2,679.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,670,000.0034,793,550.0037,055,130.7539,463,714.2542,028,855.6744,760,731.2946,103,553.23
Payout Ratio50.28%58.22%66.17%74.11%82.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16,426,000.0020,257,791.0024,518,314.9829,247,117.9134,487,075.3440,284,658.1642,645,786.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18,835,778.7019,014,316.8819,192,855.07
Year 2 PV (M)21,196,961.2621,600,703.8322,008,255.30
Year 3 PV (M)23,510,266.6624,185,161.9324,872,851.04
Year 4 PV (M)25,776,404.4726,767,692.2527,787,300.42
Year 5 PV (M)27,996,074.9829,348,295.8730,752,269.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)837,279,527.47877,720,441.72919,709,124.95
Equity Value (M)954,595,013.53998,636,612.471,044,322,656.20
Shares Outstanding (M)40,483.6640,483.6640,483.66
Fair Value$23,579.76$24,667.64$25,796.15
Upside / Downside308.31%327.15%346.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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