Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Arena REIT (ARF.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.45 - $73.81$38.23
Multi-Stage$8.76 - $9.57$9.16
Blended Fair Value$23.70
Current Price$3.71
Upside538.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.25%10.03%0.130.120.120.120.130.060.080.080.060.05
YoY Growth--15.19%-2.77%1.26%-9.71%107.30%-20.35%3.35%32.70%17.64%-4.69%
Dividend Yield--3.60%2.95%3.17%2.76%3.62%2.87%2.90%3.55%2.56%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.8017.3710.42
Cash Retained (M)45.6145.6145.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.80-17.37-10.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.8128.2435.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.52374.52374.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.45$38.23$73.81
Upside / Downside343.31%930.55%1,889.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.00148.03157.66167.90178.82190.44196.15
Payout Ratio67.19%71.75%76.31%80.87%85.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.39106.21120.31135.79152.78171.40181.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)97.9698.8999.82
Year 2 PV (M)102.34104.29106.26
Year 3 PV (M)106.54109.60112.71
Year 4 PV (M)110.55114.81119.18
Year 5 PV (M)114.39119.92125.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,749.372,882.173,020.05
Equity Value (M)3,281.173,429.683,583.68
Shares Outstanding (M)374.52374.52374.52
Fair Value$8.76$9.16$9.57
Upside / Downside136.14%146.83%157.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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