Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $227.27 - $602.88 | $347.52 |
| Multi-Stage | $160.38 - $174.96 | $167.54 |
| Blended Fair Value | $257.53 | |
| Current Price | $138.16 | |
| Upside | 86.40% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 45.82% | 23.25% | 11.13 | 24.64 | 0.21 | 0.45 | 1.63 | 1.69 | 1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -54.84% | 11,816.24% | -53.55% | -72.72% | -3.35% | 28.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -91.67% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.98% | 18.74% | 0.15% | 1.07% | 5.65% | 1.84% | 1.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 179.45 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 91.28 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 88.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 35.89 | 22.43 | 13.46 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 88.17 | 88.17 | 88.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -35.89 | -22.43 | -13.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 52.28 | 65.74 | 74.71 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 18.52 | 18.52 | 18.52 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.82 | 3.55 | 4.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.93 | 4.93 | 4.93 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.82 | 3.55 | 4.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 7.75 | 8.48 | 8.96 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $227.27 | $347.52 | $602.88 |
| Upside / Downside | 64.50% | 151.53% | 336.36% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 179.45 | 191.12 | 203.54 | 216.77 | 230.86 | 245.86 | 253.24 |
| Payout Ratio | 50.87% | 58.69% | 66.52% | 74.35% | 82.17% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 91.28 | 112.17 | 135.39 | 161.16 | 189.70 | 221.28 | 234.25 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 101.85 | 102.82 | 103.78 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 111.63 | 113.75 | 115.90 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 120.65 | 124.11 | 127.64 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 128.95 | 133.91 | 139.01 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 136.57 | 143.17 | 150.02 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,370.91 | 2,485.43 | 2,604.33 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,970.56 | 3,103.19 | 3,240.67 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 18.52 | 18.52 | 18.52 |
| Fair Value | $160.38 | $167.54 | $174.96 |
| Upside / Downside | 16.08% | 21.27% | 26.64% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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