Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.69 - $21.93$18.13
Multi-Stage$20.17 - $22.14$21.14
Blended Fair Value$19.63
Current Price$33.56
Upside-41.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)547.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)453.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.5468.4741.08
Cash Retained (M)453.78453.78453.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.54-68.47-41.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)344.24385.32412.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)313.11313.11313.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.231.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.231.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate-0.03%0.97%1.97%
Fair Value$14.69$18.13$21.93
Upside / Downside-56.23%-45.98%-34.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)547.72553.06558.45563.89569.39574.93592.18
Payout Ratio17.15%31.72%46.29%60.86%75.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.94175.44258.51343.19429.49517.44547.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate-0.03%0.97%1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)158.63160.22161.80
Year 2 PV (M)211.35215.60219.89
Year 3 PV (M)253.70261.39269.23
Year 4 PV (M)287.08298.74310.75
Year 5 PV (M)312.74328.69345.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,093.395,353.285,623.66
Equity Value (M)6,316.906,617.926,930.64
Shares Outstanding (M)313.11313.11313.11
Fair Value$20.17$21.14$22.14
Upside / Downside-39.88%-37.02%-34.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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