Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $408.07 - $1,953.71 | $723.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $304.84 - $333.14 | $318.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $520.96 | |
| Current Price | $282.20 | |
| Upside | 84.61% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.61% | 10.07% | 8.92 | 8.41 | 7.75 | 7.41 | 6.93 | 6.48 | 6.48 | 6.21 | 5.54 | 4.42 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 6.06% | 8.58% | 4.56% | 6.87% | 7.01% | 0.06% | 4.22% | 12.24% | 25.13% | 29.44% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.86% | 2.97% | 3.21% | 3.06% | 2.79% | 3.20% | 3.38% | 3.65% | 3.37% | 2.95% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7,005.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,046.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,959.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,401.00 | 875.63 | 525.38 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,959.00 | 1,959.00 | 1,959.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,401.00 | -875.63 | -525.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 558.00 | 1,083.38 | 1,433.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 541.50 | 541.50 | 541.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.03 | 2.00 | 2.65 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 9.32 | 9.32 | 9.32 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.03 | 2.00 | 2.65 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.35 | 11.32 | 11.97 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.26% | 7.26% | 7.26% |
| Growth Rate | 4.61% | 5.61% | 6.61% |
| Fair Value | $408.07 | $723.19 | $1,953.71 |
| Upside / Downside | 44.60% | 156.27% | 592.31% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7,005.00 | 7,397.82 | 7,812.67 | 8,250.79 | 8,713.47 | 9,202.10 | 9,478.16 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.03% | 75.63% | 79.22% | 82.81% | 86.41% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,046.00 | 5,594.78 | 6,189.24 | 6,832.78 | 7,529.03 | 8,281.89 | 8,767.30 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.26% | 7.26% | 7.26% |
| Growth Rate | 4.61% | 5.61% | 6.61% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,166.67 | 5,216.06 | 5,265.45 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,278.28 | 5,379.68 | 5,482.04 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,381.21 | 5,537.02 | 5,695.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,475.82 | 5,688.23 | 5,906.75 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,562.46 | 5,833.46 | 6,114.93 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 138,205.03 | 144,938.41 | 151,931.71 |
| Equity Value (M) | 165,069.47 | 172,592.86 | 180,396.69 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 541.50 | 541.50 | 541.50 |
| Fair Value | $304.84 | $318.73 | $333.14 |
| Upside / Downside | 8.02% | 12.95% | 18.05% |
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