Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.90 - $9.93 | $8.38 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.20 - $13.34 | $12.76 |
| Blended Fair Value | $10.57 | |
| Current Price | $19.44 | |
| Upside | -45.64% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.47% | 0.00% | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.22 | 1.03 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.51% | 0.59% | -8.14% | -20.09% | 18.92% | 473.43% | 172.75% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.03% | 6.36% | 8.53% | 8.96% | 13.50% | 48.81% | 1.25% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 472.42 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 440.20 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 32.22 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 94.48 | 59.05 | 35.43 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 32.22 | 32.22 | 32.22 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -94.48 | -59.05 | -35.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -62.26 | -26.83 | -3.21 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 483.69 | 483.69 | 483.69 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.13 | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.90 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $6.90 | $8.38 | $9.93 |
| Upside / Downside | -64.51% | -56.90% | -48.92% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 472.42 | 467.70 | 463.02 | 458.39 | 453.81 | 449.27 | 462.75 |
| Payout Ratio | 93.18% | 92.54% | 91.91% | 91.27% | 90.64% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 440.20 | 432.83 | 425.55 | 418.38 | 411.31 | 404.34 | 428.04 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 392.72 | 396.73 | 400.74 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 350.35 | 357.54 | 364.80 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 312.53 | 322.20 | 332.06 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 278.78 | 290.34 | 302.25 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 248.67 | 261.62 | 275.10 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,316.87 | 4,541.66 | 4,775.72 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,899.93 | 6,170.08 | 6,450.66 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 483.69 | 483.69 | 483.69 |
| Fair Value | $12.20 | $12.76 | $13.34 |
| Upside / Downside | -37.25% | -34.38% | -31.40% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
| 003012.SZ | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3.92% | $0.26 | 78.10% |
| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
| 82800.HK | Tracker Fund of Hong Kong | 3.92% | $0.93 | 12.85% |
| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
| 1437.TW | GTM Holdings Corporation | 3.91% | $1.35 | 64.33% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
| PBP.AX | Probiotec Limited | 3.91% | $0.12 | 41.70% |
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