Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Alupar Investimento S.A. (ALUP11.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.19 - $221.30$126.27
Multi-Stage$96.61 - $105.73$101.08
Blended Fair Value$113.67
Current Price$31.99
Upside255.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.69%-0.74%2.913.403.252.682.001.341.551.331.491.45
YoY Growth---14.50%4.67%20.99%34.09%48.99%-13.35%16.68%-11.01%3.23%-53.78%
Dividend Yield--10.40%11.94%13.58%10.94%8.78%6.72%7.52%8.43%8.20%11.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,163.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,118.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)232.67145.4287.25
Cash Retained (M)45.2245.2245.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-232.67-145.42-87.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-187.45-100.20-42.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)327.63327.63327.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.57-0.31-0.13
LTM Dividend per Share3.413.413.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.57-0.31-0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.843.113.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate2.93%3.93%4.93%
Fair Value$82.19$126.27$221.30
Upside / Downside156.94%294.71%591.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,163.361,209.121,256.691,306.131,357.511,410.921,453.24
Payout Ratio96.11%94.89%93.67%92.45%91.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,118.141,147.341,177.111,207.451,238.361,269.831,344.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate2.93%3.93%4.93%
Year 1 PV (M)1,067.041,077.401,087.77
Year 2 PV (M)1,018.101,037.981,058.05
Year 3 PV (M)971.25999.831,028.97
Year 4 PV (M)926.39962.911,000.51
Year 5 PV (M)883.44927.19972.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,785.8528,112.4929,491.19
Equity Value (M)31,652.0533,117.8134,639.15
Shares Outstanding (M)327.63327.63327.63
Fair Value$96.61$101.08$105.73
Upside / Downside202.00%215.98%230.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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