Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.86 - $156.59$122.24
Multi-Stage$119.34 - $130.92$125.02
Blended Fair Value$123.63
Current Price$84.88
Upside45.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.57%-0.51%1.020.970.940.950.910.850.941.041.181.23
YoY Growth--4.82%3.75%-1.23%3.85%6.85%-8.75%-10.11%-11.53%-4.73%15.28%
Dividend Yield--1.06%1.20%2.07%2.41%2.23%2.62%2.04%2.66%3.26%4.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)699.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)609.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.8087.3852.43
Cash Retained (M)609.00609.00609.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.80-87.38-52.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)469.20521.63556.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.5585.5585.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.486.106.51
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.486.106.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.547.157.56
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Fair Value$94.86$122.24$156.59
Upside / Downside11.76%44.02%84.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)699.00716.97735.41754.32773.71793.61817.42
Payout Ratio12.88%28.30%43.73%59.15%74.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.00202.91321.56446.18577.00714.25756.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.57%8.57%8.57%
Growth Rate1.57%2.57%3.57%
Year 1 PV (M)185.07186.89188.71
Year 2 PV (M)267.51272.80278.14
Year 3 PV (M)338.55348.64358.94
Year 4 PV (M)399.32415.28431.71
Year 5 PV (M)450.84473.48497.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,568.718,998.909,446.20
Equity Value (M)10,209.9910,695.9911,200.72
Shares Outstanding (M)85.5585.5585.55
Fair Value$119.34$125.02$130.92
Upside / Downside40.60%47.29%54.24%

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