Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $62.06 - $296.27 | $135.32 |
| Multi-Stage | $34.67 - $37.84 | $36.22 |
| Blended Fair Value | $85.77 | |
| Current Price | $8.35 | |
| Upside | 927.20% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.91% | 9.78% | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -33.06% | -24.72% | 0.00% | 908.83% | -75.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 14.29% | 75.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.99% | 8.17% | 6.82% | 3.21% | 0.42% | 4.28% | 5.58% | 4.06% | 5.20% | 5.06% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 7.55 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6.33 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1.23 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1.51 | 0.94 | 0.57 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1.51 | -0.94 | -0.57 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -0.28 | 0.28 | 0.66 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.07 | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.06 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.19 | 1.30 | 1.38 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.53% | 7.53% | 7.53% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $62.06 | $135.32 | $296.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 643.27% | 1,520.59% | 3,448.13% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 7.55 | 8.05 | 8.57 | 9.13 | 9.72 | 10.35 | 10.66 |
| Payout Ratio | 83.74% | 84.99% | 86.24% | 87.50% | 88.75% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6.33 | 6.84 | 7.39 | 7.98 | 8.63 | 9.32 | 9.86 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.53% | 7.53% | 7.53% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 6.30 | 6.36 | 6.42 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6.27 | 6.39 | 6.51 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 6.24 | 6.42 | 6.61 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6.21 | 6.45 | 6.70 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 6.18 | 6.48 | 6.79 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 144.61 | 151.59 | 158.85 |
| Equity Value (M) | 175.82 | 183.70 | 191.87 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.07 | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| Fair Value | $34.67 | $36.22 | $37.84 |
| Upside / Downside | 315.21% | 333.82% | 353.11% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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