Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aguas Andinas S.A. (AGUAS-A.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$190.30 - $295.55$238.98
Multi-Stage$450.27 - $495.22$472.30
Blended Fair Value$355.64
Current Price$340.00
Upside4.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-6.65%0.00%14.7314.8112.4517.6817.3620.7723.4323.1222.010.00
YoY Growth---0.56%18.96%-29.57%1.83%-16.43%-11.33%1.31%5.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.30%5.22%5.53%10.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123,600.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87,025.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)36,575.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,720.0815,450.059,270.03
Cash Retained (M)36,575.0536,575.0536,575.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,720.08-15,450.05-9,270.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,854.9721,125.0027,305.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,118.016,118.016,118.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.943.454.46
LTM Dividend per Share14.2214.2214.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.943.454.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.1617.6818.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$190.30$238.98$295.55
Upside / Downside-44.03%-29.71%-13.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123,600.39122,364.39121,140.75119,929.34118,730.05117,542.74121,069.03
Payout Ratio70.41%74.33%78.25%82.16%86.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87,025.3490,949.6694,786.7998,538.08102,204.87105,788.47111,988.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)84,676.8985,540.9486,404.99
Year 2 PV (M)82,162.8483,848.1885,550.64
Year 3 PV (M)79,523.5081,982.8284,492.33
Year 4 PV (M)76,793.9179,976.6683,257.33
Year 5 PV (M)74,004.3677,857.9481,870.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,357,588.052,480,353.132,608,179.89
Equity Value (M)2,754,749.552,889,559.683,029,755.59
Shares Outstanding (M)6,118.016,118.016,118.01
Fair Value$450.27$472.30$495.22
Upside / Downside32.43%38.91%45.65%

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