Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Aedas Homes, S.A. (AEDAS.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.19 - $37.93$31.21
Multi-Stage$50.52 - $55.55$52.99
Blended Fair Value$42.10
Current Price$25.55
Upside64.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3.360.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--15.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.9916.259.75
Cash Retained (M)71.6371.6371.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.99-16.25-9.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.6455.3861.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.7643.7643.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.041.271.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.331.331.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.041.271.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.382.602.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$25.19$31.21$37.93
Upside / Downside-1.41%22.15%48.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.97128.67127.38126.11124.85123.60127.31
Payout Ratio44.89%53.91%62.93%71.95%80.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.3469.3780.1790.74101.10111.24117.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.24%7.24%7.24%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64.0364.6865.33
Year 2 PV (M)68.3069.7071.12
Year 3 PV (M)71.3673.5775.82
Year 4 PV (M)73.3976.4379.56
Year 5 PV (M)74.5378.4182.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,858.871,955.672,056.46
Equity Value (M)2,210.482,318.462,430.74
Shares Outstanding (M)43.7643.7643.76
Fair Value$50.52$52.99$55.55
Upside / Downside97.73%107.38%117.43%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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