Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $5.14 - $7.30 | $6.20 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.55 - $13.83 | $13.18 |
| Blended Fair Value | $9.69 | |
| Current Price | $3.74 | |
| Upside | 159.12% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.26% | 8.34% | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 49.36% | -46.40% | 35.26% | -21.48% | -5.38% | 106.22% | -32.91% | 5.17% | -7.29% | 105.31% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.73% | 3.13% | 5.16% | 3.58% | 6.12% | 6.02% | 2.70% | 4.40% | 4.23% | 4.59% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 36.30 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 19.24 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 17.06 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 7.26 | 4.54 | 2.72 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 17.06 | 17.06 | 17.06 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -7.26 | -4.54 | -2.72 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 9.80 | 12.52 | 14.34 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 45.77 | 45.77 | 45.77 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.21 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -4.74% | -3.74% | -2.74% |
| Fair Value | $5.14 | $6.20 | $7.30 |
| Upside / Downside | 37.32% | 65.86% | 95.29% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 36.30 | 34.94 | 33.63 | 32.38 | 31.17 | 30.00 | 30.90 |
| Payout Ratio | 53.00% | 60.40% | 67.80% | 75.20% | 82.60% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 19.24 | 21.10 | 22.80 | 24.35 | 25.74 | 27.00 | 28.58 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -4.74% | -3.74% | -2.74% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 19.51 | 19.72 | 19.92 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 19.50 | 19.91 | 20.32 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 19.25 | 19.86 | 20.48 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 18.81 | 19.62 | 20.45 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 18.25 | 19.22 | 20.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 479.16 | 504.84 | 531.61 |
| Equity Value (M) | 574.47 | 603.16 | 633.03 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 45.77 | 45.77 | 45.77 |
| Fair Value | $12.55 | $13.18 | $13.83 |
| Upside / Downside | 235.62% | 252.38% | 269.83% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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