Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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AAON, Inc. (AAON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.58 - $60.66$37.74
Multi-Stage$18.27 - $19.95$19.09
Blended Fair Value$28.42
Current Price$93.44
Upside-69.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.40%10.45%0.310.320.280.240.240.200.200.160.150.14
YoY Growth---1.37%15.39%14.89%0.67%19.04%-0.50%22.43%7.79%6.91%22.79%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.36%0.43%0.65%0.51%0.62%0.65%0.63%0.65%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.0512.537.52
Cash Retained (M)69.3069.3069.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.05-12.53-7.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.2556.7761.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.2183.2183.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.680.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.961.051.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.58$37.74$60.66
Upside / Downside-72.62%-59.61%-35.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.25106.77113.71121.10128.97137.35141.47
Payout Ratio30.87%42.70%54.52%66.35%78.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.9545.5962.0080.35100.82123.62130.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.47%9.47%9.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.2541.6442.03
Year 2 PV (M)50.7651.7352.71
Year 3 PV (M)59.5361.2462.98
Year 4 PV (M)67.5970.1972.87
Year 5 PV (M)74.9978.6282.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,226.101,285.321,346.81
Equity Value (M)1,520.231,588.741,659.77
Shares Outstanding (M)83.2183.2183.21
Fair Value$18.27$19.09$19.95
Upside / Downside-80.45%-79.57%-78.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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