Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Taiwan Shin Kong Security Co., Ltd. (9925.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.41 - $42.58$33.70
Multi-Stage$52.03 - $57.10$54.51
Blended Fair Value$44.11
Current Price$40.85
Upside7.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.20%1.26%2.022.022.022.021.902.002.002.002.001.90
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%6.32%-5.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%5.26%6.61%
Dividend Yield--4.88%4.90%4.95%5.05%4.97%5.88%5.26%5.19%5.03%4.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)952.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)775.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)190.53119.0871.45
Cash Retained (M)177.17177.17177.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-190.53-119.08-71.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.3558.09105.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.54384.54384.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.150.27
LTM Dividend per Share2.022.022.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.150.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Fair Value$26.41$33.70$42.58
Upside / Downside-35.34%-17.50%4.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)952.63955.83959.04962.26965.49968.73997.79
Payout Ratio81.40%83.12%84.84%86.56%88.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)775.46794.50813.66832.94852.34871.86922.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Year 1 PV (M)736.57743.98751.40
Year 2 PV (M)699.34713.49727.78
Year 3 PV (M)663.71683.96704.61
Year 4 PV (M)629.65655.39681.91
Year 5 PV (M)597.11627.78659.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,681.4917,538.2218,429.79
Equity Value (M)20,007.8720,962.8121,955.18
Shares Outstanding (M)384.54384.54384.54
Fair Value$52.03$54.51$57.10
Upside / Downside27.37%33.45%39.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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