Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $109.04 - $167.72 | $136.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $239.38 - $263.05 | $250.98 |
| Blended Fair Value | $193.67 | |
| Current Price | $70.75 | |
| Upside | 173.74% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.13% | 0.00% | 4.35 | 4.35 | 1.67 | 3.33 | 5.29 | 4.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 161.00% | -49.97% | -37.05% | 22.47% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.38% | 7.39% | 3.33% | 4.75% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 71.54 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 52.20 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 19.34 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 14.31 | 8.94 | 5.37 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 19.34 | 19.34 | 19.34 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -14.31 | -8.94 | -5.37 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5.04 | 10.40 | 13.98 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.84 | 1.73 | 2.33 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8.70 | 8.70 | 8.70 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.84 | 1.73 | 2.33 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9.54 | 10.43 | 11.03 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.72% | 6.72% | 6.72% |
| Growth Rate | -1.87% | -0.87% | 0.13% |
| Fair Value | $109.04 | $136.36 | $167.72 |
| Upside / Downside | 54.12% | 92.74% | 137.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 71.54 | 70.93 | 70.31 | 69.70 | 69.10 | 68.50 | 70.56 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.96% | 76.37% | 79.78% | 83.18% | 86.59% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 52.20 | 54.17 | 56.09 | 57.98 | 59.84 | 61.65 | 65.27 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.72% | 6.72% | 6.72% |
| Growth Rate | -1.87% | -0.87% | 0.13% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 50.24 | 50.75 | 51.27 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 48.26 | 49.25 | 50.25 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 46.28 | 47.70 | 49.16 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 44.30 | 46.13 | 48.02 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 42.34 | 44.54 | 46.83 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,204.87 | 1,267.52 | 1,332.75 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,436.28 | 1,505.90 | 1,578.28 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Fair Value | $239.38 | $250.98 | $263.05 |
| Upside / Downside | 238.35% | 254.75% | 271.80% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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