Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Gas Arabian Services Company (9528.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.65 - $16.03$13.19
Multi-Stage$22.01 - $24.16$23.06
Blended Fair Value$18.13
Current Price$15.50
Upside16.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.450.230.200.190.340.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--99.48%12.50%5.33%-44.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.60%3.04%3.52%1.81%3.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)198.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.7524.8514.91
Cash Retained (M)44.3344.3344.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.75-24.85-14.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.5819.4829.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.97157.97157.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.120.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.120.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.65$13.19$16.03
Upside / Downside-31.28%-14.88%3.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)198.77196.78194.81192.86190.93189.03194.70
Payout Ratio77.70%80.16%82.62%85.08%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.44157.73160.95164.09167.14170.12180.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)145.57147.06148.54
Year 2 PV (M)137.08139.90142.74
Year 3 PV (M)128.98132.97137.04
Year 4 PV (M)121.25126.27131.45
Year 5 PV (M)113.89119.82126.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,829.422,976.753,130.16
Equity Value (M)3,476.193,642.773,815.93
Shares Outstanding (M)157.97157.97157.97
Fair Value$22.01$23.06$24.16
Upside / Downside41.97%48.77%55.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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