Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Natural Gas Distribution Company (9516.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.26 - $23.82$19.21
Multi-Stage$35.88 - $39.54$37.68
Blended Fair Value$28.44
Current Price$44.40
Upside-35.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-7.79%0.00%0.500.500.500.501.000.750.500.500.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.19%0.94%0.41%5.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.601.000.60
Cash Retained (M)5.505.505.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.60-1.00-0.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.904.504.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.015.015.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.26$19.21$23.82
Upside / Downside-65.63%-56.74%-46.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.007.927.847.767.697.617.84
Payout Ratio31.24%42.99%54.75%66.50%78.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.503.414.295.166.016.857.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.173.213.24
Year 2 PV (M)3.733.813.88
Year 3 PV (M)4.184.314.44
Year 4 PV (M)4.544.734.92
Year 5 PV (M)4.825.075.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)159.45167.75176.39
Equity Value (M)179.89188.87198.21
Shares Outstanding (M)5.015.015.01
Fair Value$35.88$37.68$39.54
Upside / Downside-19.18%-15.14%-10.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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