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Definitive Analysis

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Nareru Group Inc. (9163.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,437.08 - $3,771.11$3,055.65
Multi-Stage$5,547.98 - $6,108.00$5,822.48
Blended Fair Value$4,439.07
Current Price$2,336.00
Upside90.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%139.990.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,297.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,002.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,295.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)459.52287.20172.32
Cash Retained (M)1,295.531,295.531,295.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-459.52-287.20-172.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)836.021,008.331,123.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.788.788.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share95.24114.87127.96
LTM Dividend per Share114.15114.15114.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share95.24114.87127.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend209.39229.03242.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,437.08$3,055.65$3,771.11
Upside / Downside4.33%30.81%61.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,297.582,274.602,251.862,229.342,207.042,184.972,250.52
Payout Ratio43.61%52.89%62.17%71.45%80.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,002.051,203.051,399.931,592.761,781.581,966.482,081.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,119.051,130.471,141.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,211.271,236.111,261.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,281.891,321.531,361.98
Year 4 PV (M)1,333.751,389.031,446.00
Year 5 PV (M)1,369.381,440.681,514.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,384.7044,591.7746,889.84
Equity Value (M)48,700.0351,109.6053,615.86
Shares Outstanding (M)8.788.788.78
Fair Value$5,547.98$5,822.48$6,108.00
Upside / Downside137.50%149.25%161.47%

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