Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Frontier Real Estate Investment Corporation (8964.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$129,609.07 - $214,520.84$167,210.74
Multi-Stage$264,235.61 - $289,888.81$276,816.12
Blended Fair Value$222,013.43
Current Price$82,100.00
Upside170.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5,393.910.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24,516.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,632.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)884.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,903.333,064.581,838.75
Cash Retained (M)884.10884.10884.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,903.33-3,064.58-1,838.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4,019.22-2,180.48-954.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.162.162.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1,857.31-1,007.61-441.15
LTM Dividend per Share10,920.7510,920.7510,920.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1,857.31-1,007.61-441.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend9,063.449,913.1410,479.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Fair Value$129,609.07$167,210.74$214,520.84
Upside / Downside57.87%103.67%161.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24,516.6324,644.5224,773.0824,902.3125,032.2125,162.7825,917.67
Payout Ratio96.39%95.12%93.84%92.56%91.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,632.5323,440.6623,246.1523,048.9622,849.0922,646.5123,973.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)21,794.9222,013.9222,232.91
Year 2 PV (M)20,096.5620,502.4620,912.41
Year 3 PV (M)18,527.1119,091.2319,666.68
Year 4 PV (M)17,076.9617,773.7418,491.63
Year 5 PV (M)15,737.2316,543.9317,383.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)478,573.60503,105.36528,632.97
Equity Value (M)571,806.40599,030.63627,319.96
Shares Outstanding (M)2.162.162.16
Fair Value$264,235.61$276,816.12$289,888.81
Upside / Downside221.85%237.17%253.09%

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