Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JAFCO Group Co., Ltd. (8595.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,066.64 - $1,606.08$1,321.55
Multi-Stage$2,267.50 - $2,489.47$2,376.33
Blended Fair Value$1,848.94
Current Price$2,591.50
Upside-28.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.75%17.40%101.99150.3267.1675.0667.5064.0661.2181.9681.9981.96
YoY Growth---32.16%123.82%-10.52%11.21%5.37%4.65%-25.32%-0.05%0.05%299.64%
Dividend Yield--4.14%7.84%3.64%4.59%2.93%5.29%4.56%5.46%5.44%9.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,807.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,515.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,292.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,361.40850.88510.53
Cash Retained (M)1,292.001,292.001,292.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,361.40-850.88-510.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-69.40441.13781.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.0854.0854.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.288.1614.45
LTM Dividend per Share101.99101.99101.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.288.1614.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.70110.14116.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.11%-1.11%-0.11%
Fair Value$1,066.64$1,321.55$1,606.08
Upside / Downside-58.84%-49.00%-38.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,807.006,731.166,656.166,582.006,508.676,436.156,629.24
Payout Ratio81.02%82.82%84.61%86.41%88.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,515.005,574.455,631.905,687.375,740.905,792.546,132.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.11%-1.11%-0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)5,150.965,203.585,256.20
Year 2 PV (M)4,808.684,907.435,007.19
Year 3 PV (M)4,487.124,626.054,767.82
Year 4 PV (M)4,185.264,358.924,537.94
Year 5 PV (M)3,902.094,105.524,317.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)100,084.26105,302.08110,735.29
Equity Value (M)122,618.36128,503.58134,621.78
Shares Outstanding (M)54.0854.0854.08
Fair Value$2,267.50$2,376.33$2,489.47
Upside / Downside-12.50%-8.30%-3.94%

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