Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Roland Corporation (7944.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,474.76 - $52,541.27$49,238.87
Multi-Stage$7,433.19 - $8,126.23$7,773.38
Blended Fair Value$28,506.12
Current Price$3,375.00
Upside744.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201420132012
DPS19.95%29.95%175.09167.08151.36108.3584.3670.53426.5611.0215.4319.85
YoY Growth--4.79%10.39%39.70%28.44%19.61%-83.47%3,769.22%-28.57%-22.23%55.72%
Dividend Yield--4.65%3.68%3.80%2.69%2.11%3.77%0.00%0.59%1.70%3.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,125.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,609.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,516.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,425.00890.63534.38
Cash Retained (M)2,516.002,516.002,516.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,425.00-890.63-534.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,091.001,625.381,981.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.9726.9726.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share40.4560.2773.48
LTM Dividend per Share170.90170.90170.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share40.4560.2773.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend211.35231.17244.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18,474.76$49,238.87$52,541.27
Upside / Downside447.40%1,358.93%1,456.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,125.007,588.138,081.358,606.649,166.079,761.8710,054.72
Payout Ratio64.69%69.75%74.81%79.88%84.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,609.005,292.736,045.876,874.567,785.448,785.689,300.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,913.494,960.065,006.64
Year 2 PV (M)5,210.505,309.755,409.93
Year 3 PV (M)5,500.165,658.055,818.94
Year 4 PV (M)5,782.616,004.996,233.73
Year 5 PV (M)6,057.966,350.566,654.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)173,000.69181,356.69190,032.49
Equity Value (M)200,465.42209,640.11219,156.08
Shares Outstanding (M)26.9726.9726.97
Fair Value$7,433.19$7,773.38$8,126.23
Upside / Downside120.24%130.32%140.78%

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