Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $175.61 - $268.67 | $219.10 |
| Multi-Stage | $385.23 - $423.53 | $404.01 |
| Blended Fair Value | $311.55 | |
| Current Price | $155.50 | |
| Upside | 100.36% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.48 | 3.99 | 2.49 | 2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 112.50% | 60.00% | 22.48% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.79% | 1.20% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 430.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 273.98 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 156.43 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 86.08 | 53.80 | 32.28 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 156.43 | 156.43 | 156.43 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -86.08 | -53.80 | -32.28 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 70.35 | 102.63 | 124.15 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 21.98 | 21.98 | 21.98 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.20 | 4.67 | 5.65 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 12.46 | 12.46 | 12.46 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.20 | 4.67 | 5.65 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 15.66 | 17.13 | 18.11 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $175.61 | $219.10 | $268.67 |
| Upside / Downside | 12.93% | 40.90% | 72.78% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 430.40 | 426.10 | 421.84 | 417.62 | 413.44 | 409.31 | 421.59 |
| Payout Ratio | 63.66% | 68.92% | 74.19% | 79.46% | 84.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 273.98 | 293.69 | 312.97 | 331.85 | 350.31 | 368.38 | 389.97 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.74% | 6.74% | 6.74% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 272.36 | 275.14 | 277.92 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 269.17 | 274.69 | 280.27 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 264.68 | 272.86 | 281.22 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 259.12 | 269.85 | 280.92 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 252.69 | 265.85 | 279.55 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,150.27 | 7,522.60 | 7,910.28 |
| Equity Value (M) | 8,468.28 | 8,880.99 | 9,310.16 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 21.98 | 21.98 | 21.98 |
| Fair Value | $385.23 | $404.01 | $423.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 147.74% | 159.81% | 172.37% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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