Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

T.RAD Co., Ltd. (7236.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,426.42 - $42,124.39$26,854.00
Multi-Stage$23,144.66 - $25,403.82$24,252.86
Blended Fair Value$25,553.43
Current Price$4,420.00
Upside478.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.75%6.63%194.1881.69203.3643.7255.86106.58123.7074.2275.4663.79
YoY Growth--137.71%-59.83%365.12%-21.73%-47.59%-13.84%66.67%-1.65%18.29%-37.60%
Dividend Yield--4.39%2.20%11.03%1.67%2.09%8.01%6.32%2.16%2.13%3.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,969.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,545.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,424.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,193.80746.13447.68
Cash Retained (M)4,424.004,424.004,424.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,193.80-746.13-447.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,230.203,677.883,976.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.436.436.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share502.60572.25618.69
LTM Dividend per Share240.39240.39240.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share502.60572.25618.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend742.99812.64859.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Fair Value$18,426.42$26,854.00$42,124.39
Upside / Downside316.89%507.56%853.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,969.006,172.436,382.796,600.326,825.277,057.887,269.62
Payout Ratio25.88%38.71%51.53%64.35%77.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,545.002,389.163,289.074,247.545,267.526,352.096,724.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.41%3.41%4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)2,220.872,242.562,264.24
Year 2 PV (M)2,842.032,897.802,954.12
Year 3 PV (M)3,411.703,512.623,615.52
Year 4 PV (M)3,932.944,088.824,249.29
Year 5 PV (M)4,408.654,628.144,856.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,935.19138,503.87145,331.61
Equity Value (M)148,751.37155,873.81163,271.07
Shares Outstanding (M)6.436.436.43
Fair Value$23,144.66$24,252.86$25,403.82
Upside / Downside423.63%448.71%474.75%

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