Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Vishee Medical Technology Co., Ltd (688580.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.37 - $54.98$36.29
Multi-Stage$19.44 - $21.17$20.29
Blended Fair Value$28.29
Current Price$49.59
Upside-42.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%36.90%1.070.530.930.750.530.360.220.260.090.23
YoY Growth--100.23%-42.59%23.77%42.82%45.38%64.77%-14.48%192.25%-61.63%395.41%
Dividend Yield--3.15%1.47%1.90%1.68%0.71%0.20%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)77.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1915.749.45
Cash Retained (M)48.7148.7148.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.19-15.74-9.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.5232.9739.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.6195.6195.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.340.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.37$36.29$54.98
Upside / Downside-48.84%-26.81%10.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.95134.14142.86152.14162.03172.56177.74
Payout Ratio61.33%67.06%72.80%78.53%84.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)77.2489.96103.99119.48136.54155.31164.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.1081.8682.63
Year 2 PV (M)84.5286.1387.75
Year 3 PV (M)87.5490.0592.62
Year 4 PV (M)90.1993.6697.22
Year 5 PV (M)92.4896.95101.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,422.491,491.201,562.53
Equity Value (M)1,858.321,939.852,024.35
Shares Outstanding (M)95.6195.6195.61
Fair Value$19.44$20.29$21.17
Upside / Downside-60.81%-59.09%-57.30%

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