Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Longwell Company (6290.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$373.98 - $1,216.03$1,139.10
Multi-Stage$591.60 - $651.87$621.15
Blended Fair Value$880.12
Current Price$96.20
Upside814.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.15%9.50%2.932.021.843.223.221.331.322.181.631.51
YoY Growth--45.08%9.79%-42.86%-0.09%142.65%0.95%-39.62%33.53%7.96%27.78%
Dividend Yield--3.53%2.20%2.68%6.15%5.15%2.62%2.64%4.68%5.18%4.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,027.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)470.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)556.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)205.50128.4477.06
Cash Retained (M)556.77556.77556.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-205.50-128.44-77.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)351.27428.33479.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.61160.61160.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.192.672.99
LTM Dividend per Share2.932.932.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.192.672.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.125.605.92
WACC / Discount Rate2.13%2.13%2.13%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$373.98$1,139.10$1,216.03
Upside / Downside288.75%1,084.10%1,164.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,027.511,045.461,063.741,082.331,101.241,120.491,154.11
Payout Ratio45.81%54.65%63.49%72.33%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)470.74571.36675.35782.80893.801,008.441,067.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.13%2.13%2.13%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)553.96559.46564.96
Year 2 PV (M)634.85647.52660.31
Year 3 PV (M)713.45734.91756.79
Year 4 PV (M)789.82821.65854.43
Year 5 PV (M)864.00907.73953.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,463.4996,093.73100,909.62
Equity Value (M)95,019.5799,765.00104,699.34
Shares Outstanding (M)160.61160.61160.61
Fair Value$591.60$621.15$651.87
Upside / Downside514.97%545.68%577.62%

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