Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6.52 - $10.13 | $8.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $15.59 - $17.14 | $16.35 |
| Blended Fair Value | $12.27 | |
| Current Price | $5.21 | |
| Upside | 135.57% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.78% | 0.00% | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 1.83% | 19.73% | -37.14% | 26.36% | -0.72% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.60% | 7.45% | 4.02% | 4.39% | 1.94% | 3.65% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,264.33 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,086.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,177.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,252.87 | 783.04 | 469.82 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,177.52 | 1,177.52 | 1,177.52 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,252.87 | -783.04 | -469.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -75.34 | 394.48 | 707.70 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $6.52 | $8.19 | $10.13 |
| Upside / Downside | 25.17% | 57.22% | 94.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,264.33 | 6,201.68 | 6,139.67 | 6,078.27 | 6,017.49 | 5,957.31 | 6,136.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.20% | 82.96% | 84.72% | 86.48% | 88.24% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,086.80 | 5,145.05 | 5,201.62 | 5,256.55 | 5,309.86 | 5,361.58 | 5,675.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.31% | 6.31% | 6.31% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,790.80 | 4,839.69 | 4,888.57 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,510.00 | 4,602.51 | 4,695.96 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,243.82 | 4,375.06 | 4,508.99 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,991.70 | 4,157.14 | 4,327.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,753.07 | 3,948.50 | 4,151.99 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 120,048.55 | 126,299.75 | 132,808.70 |
| Equity Value (M) | 141,337.94 | 148,222.65 | 155,381.87 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 | 9,063.03 |
| Fair Value | $15.59 | $16.35 | $17.14 |
| Upside / Downside | 199.33% | 213.91% | 229.07% |
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