Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery Co., Ltd. (6168.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.48 - $22.48$18.87
Multi-Stage$25.48 - $28.04$26.74
Blended Fair Value$22.80
Current Price$44.20
Upside-48.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.730.800.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.04
YoY Growth--114.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.17%2.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)786.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)688.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.3198.3258.99
Cash Retained (M)688.08688.08688.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.31-98.32-58.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)530.77589.76629.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.53373.53373.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.581.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.95
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.48$18.87$22.48
Upside / Downside-64.98%-57.30%-49.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)786.54778.68770.89763.18755.55747.99770.43
Payout Ratio12.52%28.02%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98.47218.15335.42450.33562.91673.19712.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)198.72200.75202.78
Year 2 PV (M)278.35284.06289.83
Year 3 PV (M)340.44350.97361.71
Year 4 PV (M)387.65403.72420.28
Year 5 PV (M)422.32444.31467.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,891.818,302.758,730.64
Equity Value (M)9,519.309,986.5610,472.45
Shares Outstanding (M)373.53373.53373.53
Fair Value$25.48$26.74$28.04
Upside / Downside-42.34%-39.51%-36.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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