Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co., Ltd. (605286.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$218.73 - $257.70$241.50
Multi-Stage$66.75 - $73.11$69.87
Blended Fair Value$155.69
Current Price$42.15
Upside269.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS38.75%0.00%0.530.270.190.160.040.101.230.130.030.00
YoY Growth--96.09%41.22%17.59%315.56%-61.99%-91.61%880.97%385.75%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.24%0.50%0.63%0.12%0.48%5.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)219.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)165.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.8527.4116.44
Cash Retained (M)53.7053.7053.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.85-27.41-16.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8526.3037.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)169.21169.21169.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.160.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.160.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.131.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$218.73$241.50$257.70
Upside / Downside418.92%472.95%511.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)219.26233.51248.69264.85282.07300.40309.42
Payout Ratio75.51%78.41%81.30%84.20%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)165.56183.08202.19223.01245.69270.36286.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)172.63174.27175.90
Year 2 PV (M)179.77183.19186.65
Year 3 PV (M)186.96192.32197.79
Year 4 PV (M)194.20201.67209.36
Year 5 PV (M)201.51211.24221.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,360.4110,860.8211,380.38
Equity Value (M)11,295.4811,823.5212,371.43
Shares Outstanding (M)169.21169.21169.21
Fair Value$66.75$69.87$73.11
Upside / Downside58.37%65.77%73.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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