Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co., Ltd (605090.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.61 - $402.44$257.62
Multi-Stage$48.79 - $53.36$51.03
Blended Fair Value$154.33
Current Price$34.69
Upside344.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.91%0.00%0.830.580.320.130.020.070.200.200.180.21
YoY Growth--41.55%82.03%140.38%707.63%-77.06%-64.39%0.21%12.27%-14.18%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.23%2.11%1.43%0.67%0.05%0.23%0.00%0.66%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,390.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)585.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)804.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)278.03173.77104.26
Cash Retained (M)804.32804.32804.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-278.03-173.77-104.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)526.30630.55700.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)686.97686.97686.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.770.921.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.770.921.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.771.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.61$257.62$402.44
Upside / Downside184.26%642.64%1,060.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,390.131,480.491,576.721,679.201,788.351,904.591,961.73
Payout Ratio42.14%51.71%61.28%70.86%80.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)585.81765.59966.281,189.821,438.341,714.141,814.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.23%7.23%7.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)707.26713.96720.66
Year 2 PV (M)824.63840.34856.19
Year 3 PV (M)938.03964.96992.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,047.551,087.841,129.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,153.291,208.991,266.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,849.1130,242.5331,689.28
Equity Value (M)33,519.8735,058.6236,654.64
Shares Outstanding (M)686.97686.97686.97
Fair Value$48.79$51.03$53.36
Upside / Downside40.66%47.11%53.81%

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