Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $176.59 - $353.15 | $330.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $55.61 - $60.81 | $58.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $194.56 | |
| Current Price | $17.59 | |
| Upside | 1,006.06% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 41.51% | 0.00% | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 54.84% | 2.00% | 14.28% | 1.07% | 211.12% | -23.82% | 90.24% | -35.74% | 14.48% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.86% | 3.06% | 1.68% | 1.14% | 1.98% | 0.95% | 0.81% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 671.20 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 463.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 207.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 134.24 | 83.90 | 50.34 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 207.40 | 207.40 | 207.40 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -134.24 | -83.90 | -50.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 73.16 | 123.50 | 157.06 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 377.99 | 377.99 | 377.99 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.42 | 1.55 | 1.64 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $176.59 | $330.95 | $353.15 |
| Upside / Downside | 903.94% | 1,781.47% | 1,907.66% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 671.20 | 714.83 | 761.29 | 810.77 | 863.47 | 919.60 | 947.19 |
| Payout Ratio | 69.10% | 73.28% | 77.46% | 81.64% | 85.82% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 463.80 | 523.83 | 589.70 | 661.92 | 741.04 | 827.64 | 876.15 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 487.93 | 492.56 | 497.18 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 511.65 | 521.39 | 531.23 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 534.95 | 550.31 | 565.96 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 557.86 | 579.31 | 601.38 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 580.36 | 608.39 | 637.49 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 18,346.71 | 19,232.86 | 20,152.93 |
| Equity Value (M) | 21,019.46 | 21,984.82 | 22,986.17 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 377.99 | 377.99 | 377.99 |
| Fair Value | $55.61 | $58.16 | $60.81 |
| Upside / Downside | 216.14% | 230.66% | 245.72% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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