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Definitive Analysis

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Sino-Agri Leading Biosciences Co.,Ltd (603970.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.98 - $132.82$124.48
Multi-Stage$21.95 - $24.00$22.96
Blended Fair Value$73.72
Current Price$13.48
Upside446.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.33%2.91%0.540.460.350.350.350.330.270.350.390.31
YoY Growth--17.48%30.91%-0.44%1.92%4.74%24.06%-22.89%-12.40%26.34%-23.00%
Dividend Yield--4.07%2.54%1.86%2.01%2.34%3.08%2.54%2.50%4.42%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)133.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.9022.4413.46
Cash Retained (M)45.7645.7645.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.90-22.44-13.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8623.3232.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)268.77268.77268.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.090.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.090.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$79.98$124.48$132.82
Upside / Downside493.31%823.41%885.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.51191.17203.60216.84230.93245.94253.32
Payout Ratio74.51%77.61%80.70%83.80%86.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)133.75148.36164.32181.71200.68221.35234.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)138.38139.70141.01
Year 2 PV (M)142.95145.68148.43
Year 3 PV (M)147.46151.69156.00
Year 4 PV (M)151.89157.74163.74
Year 5 PV (M)156.27163.81171.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,161.795,411.115,669.97
Equity Value (M)5,898.756,169.726,450.80
Shares Outstanding (M)268.77268.77268.77
Fair Value$21.95$22.96$24.00
Upside / Downside62.81%70.29%78.05%

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